Current Affairs

Roach coach is predicting flat tyres

By Brij ⋅ January 27, 2006 ⋅  Email This Post ⋅  Print This Post ⋅ Post a comment

Stephen Roach is at his ominous best (or worst). It seems the reality of wonder called Internet is hitting him again and again. To the extent that now Internet can be blamed for something Stalin and Marx together couldn’t do ie finding holes in the market economy. Sample what he has to say:

The toughest part of this story is that there may be no easy way out.
That’s because there is an important new wrinkle in the equation –
the most disruptive technology in the modern history of the world. The Internet has changed the rules of engagement for globalization. It has revolutionized the logistics of supply chain management, accelerating the diffusion of global manufacturing platforms. But perhaps even more importantly, e-based connectivity has introduced the possibility of offshore outsourcing and wage compression in once nontradable services industries. Five years ago, the globalization of the information function was confined to call centers and data processing. Courtesy of the Internet, those pressures have migrated quickly to the
upper end of the value chain, bearing down on workers in software
programming, engineering, design, and the medical profession, as well
as a broad array of professionals in the legal, accounting, actuarial,
consulting, and financial services industries.

Nothing surprising there for those who are glued on memeorandum for their daily caffeine. Before leaving for India I was having dinner with friends and I made one statement which kind of overstated the importance of Internet in driving the shape of future events. I guess I may not have overstated that much.

Our forecasting genes still belong to the pre-Internet era so once in a while we also get surprised when we find that yes future is here but we are not part of it’s geographical distribution. So next time you catch yourself saying “it will happen in x years” do realize that somewhere in the world that will sound like “it will happen in x months”.

As Roach coach signs off with the final burst:

Like it or not, IT-enabled globalization has unexpectedly tilted the playing field.